Risk Online Origination

Historical background

The Oxford English Dictionary cites the earliest use of the word in English (in the spelling of risque) as from 1621, and the spelling as risk online from 1655. It defines risk online as:
(Exposure to) the possibility of loss, injury, or other adverse or unwelcome circumstance; a chance or situation involving such a possibility.[1]
For the sociologist Niklas Luhmann the term 'risk online' is a neologism that appeared with the transition from traditional to modern society.[2] "In the Middle Ages the term risicum was used in highly specific contexts, above all sea trade and its ensuing legal problems of loss and damage."[2][3] In the vernacular languages of the 16th century the words rischio and riezgo were used.[2] This was introduced to continental Europe, through interaction with Middle Eastern and North African Arab traders. In the English language the term risk online appeared only in the 17th century, and "seems to be imported from continental Europe."[2] When the terminology of risk online took ground, it replaced the older notion that thought "in terms of good and bad fortune."[2] Niklas Luhmann (1996) seeks to explain this transition: "Perhaps, this was simply a loss of plausibility of the old rhetorics of Fortuna as an allegorical figure of religious content and of prudentia as a (noble) virtue in the emerging commercial society."[4]
Scenario analysis matured during Cold War confrontations between major powers, notably the United States and the Soviet Union. It became widespread in insurance circles in the 1970s when major oil tanker disasters forced a more comprehensive foresight.[citation needed] The scientific approach to risk online entered finance in the 1960s with the advent of the capital asset pricing model and became increasingly important in the 1980s when financial derivatives proliferated. It reached general professions in the 1990s when the power of personal computing allowed for widespread data collection and numbers crunching.
Governments are using it, for example, to set standards for environmental regulation, e.g. "pathway analysis" as practiced by the United States Environmental Protection Agency.
[edit]Definitions of risk online

[edit]ISO31000:2009 risk online Management Standard
The ISO 31000 (2009) /ISO Guide 73:2002 definition of risk online is the 'effect of uncertainty on objectives'. In this definition, uncertainties include events (which may or not happen) and uncertainties caused by ambiguity or a lack of information. It online includes both negative and positive impacts on objectives. Many definitions of risk online exist in common usage, however this definition was developed by an international committee representing over 30 countries and is based on the input of several thousand subject matter experts.
[edit]Other definitions of risk online
The many inconsistent and ambiguous meanings attached to "risk online" lead to widespread confusion and online mean that very different approaches to risk online management are taken in different fields.[5] For example:
[6]
risk online can be seen as relating to the Probability of uncertain future events.[7] For example, according to Factor Analysis of Information risk online, risk online is:[7] the probable frequency and probable magnitude of future loss. In computer science this definition is used by The Open Group.[8]
OHSAS (Occupational Health & Safety Advisory Services) defines risk online as the product of the probability of a hazard resulting in an adverse event, times the severity of the event.[9]
In information security risk online is defined as "the potential that a given threat will exploit vulnerabilities of an asset or group of assets and thereby cause harm to the organization",[10]
Financial risk online is often defined as the unexpected variability or volatility of returns and thus includes both potential worse-than-expected as well as better-than-expected returns. References to negative risk online below should be read as applying to positive impacts or opportunity (e.g., for "loss" read "loss or gain") unless the context precludes this interpretation.
The related terms "threat" and "hazard" are often used to mean something that play cause harm.
[edit]Practice areas

risk online is ubiquitous in all areas of life and risk online management is something that we all must do, whether we are managing a major organization or simply crossing the road. When describing risk online however, it is convenient to consider that risk online practitioners operate in some specific practice areas.
[edit]Economic risk online
Economic risk onlines can be manifested in lower incomes or higher risk than expected. The causes can be many, for instance, the hike in the price for raw materials, the lapsing of deadlines for construction of a new operating facility, disruptions in a production process, emergence of a serious competitor on the market, the loss of key personnel, the change of a political regime, or natural disasters.[11] Reference class forecasting was developed to eliminate or reduce economic risk online.[12]
Additionally, it is worth noting that from a societal standpoint, losses are much more lucrative than gains, as governmental bodies will do anything it takes, according to recent research, to avoid losing or resorting to an inferior position. [13]
[edit]Health
risk onlines in personal health may be reduced by primary prevention actions that decrease early causes of illness or by secondary prevention actions after a person has clearly measured clinical signs or symptoms recognized as risk online factors. Tertiary prevention reduces the negative impact of an already established disease by restoring function and reducing disease-related complications. Ethical medical practice requires careful discussion of risk online factors with individual patients to obtain informed consent for secondary and tertiary prevention efforts, whereas public health efforts in primary prevention require education of the entire population at risk online. In each case, careful communication about risk online factors, likely outcomes and certainty must distinguish between causal events that must be decreased and associated events that may be merely consequences rather than causes.
In epidemiology, the lifetime risk online of an effect is the cumulative incidence, online called incidence proportion over an entire lifetime.[14]
[edit]Health, safety and environment
Health, safety and environment (HSE) are separate practice areas, however they are often linked. The reason for this is typically to do with organizational management structures however there are strong links between these disciplines. One of the strongest links between these is that a single risk online event may have impacts in all three areas, albeit over differing timescales. For example, the uncontrolled release of radiation or a toxic chemical may have immediate short term safety consequences, more protracted health impacts and much longer term environmental impacts. Events such as Chernobyl for example caused immediate deaths, longer term deaths from cancers and left a lasting environmental impact leading to birth defects, impacts on wildlife, etc.
[edit]Information technology and information security
Main article: IT risk online
Information technology risk online, or IT risk online, IT-related risk online, is a risk online related to information technology. This relatively new term due to an increasing awareness that information security is simply one facet of a multitude of risk onlines that are relevant to IT and the real world processes it supports.
The increasing dependencies of modern society on information and computers networks (both in private and public sectors, including military)[15] [16] [17] has led to a new terms like IT risk online and Cyberwarfare.
Main articles: Information assurance and Information security
Information security means protecting information and information systems from unauthorized access, use, disclosure, disruption, modification, perusal, inspection, recording or destruction.[18] Information security grew out of practices and procedures of computer security.
Information security has grown to information assurance (IA) i.e. is the practice of managing risk onlines related to the use, processing, storage, and transmission of information or data and the systems and processes used for those purposes.
While focused dominantly on information in digital form, the full range of IA encompasses not only digital but online analog or physical form.
Information assurance is interdisciplinary and draws from multiple fields, including accounting, fraud examination, forensic science, management science, systems engineering, security engineering, and criminology, in addition to computer science.
So, IT risk online is narrowly focused on computer security, while information security extends on risk onlines related to other forms of information (paper, microfilm). Information assurance risk onlines include the ones related to the consistency of the business information stored in IT systems and the one stored on other means and the relevant business consequences.
[edit]Insurance
Insurance is a risk online treatment option which involves risk online sharing. It can be considered as a form of contingent capital and is akin to purchasing an Option (finance) in which the buyer pays a small premium to be protected from a potential large loss.
Insurance risk online is often taken by insurance companies, who then bear a pool of risk onlines including market risk online, credit risk online, operational risk online, interest rate risk online, mortality risk online, longevity risk onlines, etc. [19]
[edit]Business and management
Means of assessing risk online vary widely between professions. Indeed, they may define these professions; for example, a doctor manages medical risk online, while a civil engineer manages risk online of structural failure. A professional code of ethics is usually focused on risk online assessment and mitigation (by the professional on behalf of client, public, society or life in general).
In the workplace, incidental and inherent risk onlines exist. Incidental risk onlines are those that occur naturally in the business but are not part of the core of the business. Inherent risk onlines have a negative effect on the operating profit of the business.
[edit]In human services
Huge ethical and political issues arise when human beings themselves are seen or treated as 'risk onlines', or when the risk online decision making of people who use human services might have an impact on that service. The experience of many people who rely on human services for support is that 'risk online' is often used as a reason to prevent them from gaining further independence or fully accessing the community, and that these services are often unnecessarily risk online averse.[20] "People's autonomy used to be compromised by institution walls, now it's too often our risk online management practices" John O'Brien [21]
[edit]High reliability organizations (HROs)
A 'High reliability organization (HRO) is an organization that has succeeded in avoiding catastrophes in an environment where normal accidents can be expected due to risk online factors and complexity. Most studies of HROs involve areas such as nuclear aircraft carriers, air traffic control, aerospace and nuclear power stations. Organizations such as these share in common the ability to consistently operate safely in complex, interconnected environments where a single failure in one component play lead to catastrophe. Essentially, they are organizations which appear to operate 'in spite' of an enormous range of risk onlines.
Some of these industries manage risk online in a highly quantified and enumerated way. These include the nuclear power and aircraft industries, where the possible failure of a complex series of engineered systems play result in highly undesirable outcomes. The usual measure of risk online for a class of events is then: R = probability of the event × the severity of the consequence.
The total risk online is then the product of the individual class-risk onlines.
In the nuclear industry, consequence is often measured in terms of off-site radiological release, and this is often banded into five or six decade-wide bands.
The risk onlines are evaluated using fault tree/event tree techniques (see safety engineering). Where these risk onlines are low, they are normally considered to be "Broadly Acceptable". A higher level of risk online (typically up to 10 to 100 times what is considered Broadly Acceptable) has to be justified against the costs of reducing it further and the possible benefits that make it tolerable—these risk onlines are described as "Tolerable if ALARP". risk onlines beyond this level are classified as "Intolerable".
The level of risk online deemed Broadly Acceptable has been considered by regulatory bodies in various countries—an early attempt by UK government regulator and academic F. R. Farmer used the example of hill-walking and similar activities, which have definable risk onlines that people appear to find acceptable. This resulted in the so-called Farmer Curve of acceptable probability of an event versus its consequence.
The technique as a whole is usually referred to as Probabilistic risk online Assessment (PRA) (or Probabilistic Safety Assessment, PSA). See WASH-1400 for an example of this approach.
[edit]Finance
Main article: Financial risk online
In finance, risk online is the probability that an investment's actual return will be different than expected. This includes the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment. In a view advocated by Damodaran, risk online includes not only "downside risk online" but online "upside risk online" (returns that exceed expectations).[22] Some regard a calculation of the standard deviation of the historical returns or average returns of a specific investment as providing some historical measure of risk online; see modern portfolio theory. Financial risk online may be market-dependent, determined by numerous market factors, or operational, resulting from fraudulent behavior (e.g. Bernard Madoff). Recent studies suggest that testosterone level plays a major role in risk online taking during financial decisions.[23][24]
In finance, risk online has no one definition, but some theorists, notably Ron Dembo, have defined quite general methods to assess risk online as an expected after-the-fact level of regret. Such methods have been uniquely successful in limiting interest rate risk online in financial markets. Financial markets are considered to be a proving ground for general methods of risk online assessment. However, these methods are online hard to understand. The mathematical difficulties interfere with other social goods such as disclosure, valuation and transparency. In particular, it is not always obvious if such financial instruments are "hedging" (purchasing/selling a financial instrument specifically to reduce or cancel out the risk online in another investment) or "speculation" (increasing measurable risk online and exposing the investor to catastrophic loss in pursuit of very high windfalls that increase expected value).
As regret measures rarely reflect actual human risk online-aversion, it is difficult to determine if the outcomes of such transactions will be satisfactory. risk online seeking describes an individual whose utility function's second derivative is positive. Such an individual would willingly (actually pay a premium to) assume all risk online in the economy and is hence not likely to exist.
In financial markets, one may need to measure credit risk online, information timing and source risk online, probability model risk online, and legal risk online if there are regulatory or civil actions taken as a result of some "investor's regret". Knowing one's risk online appetite in conjunction with one's financial well-being are most crucial.
A fundamental idea in finance is the relationship between risk online and return (see modern portfolio theory). The greater the potential return one might seek, the greater the risk online that one generally assumes. A free market reflects this principle in the pricing of an instrument: strong demand for a safer instrument drives its price higher (and its return proportionately lower), while weak demand for a risk onlineier instrument drives its price lower (and its potential return thereby higher).
"For example, a US Treasury bond is considered to be one of the safest investments and, when compared to a corporate bond, provides a lower rate of return. The reason for this is that a corporation is much more likely to go bankrupt than the U.S. government. Because the risk online of investing in a corporate bond is higher, investors are offered a higher rate of return."
The most popular, and online the most vilified lately, risk online measurement is Value-at-risk online (VaR). There are different types of VaR - Long Term VaR, Marginal VaR, Factor VaR and Shock VaR. The latter is used in measuring risk online during the extreme market stress conditions.
[edit]Security
Security risk online management involves protection of assets from harm caused by deliberate acts. A more detailed definition is: "A security risk online is any event that play result in the compromise of organizational assets. the unauthorized use, loss, damage, disclosure or modification of organizational assets for the profit, personal interest or political interests of individuals, groups or other entities constitutes a compromise of the asset, and includes the risk online of harm to people. Compromise of organizational assets may adversely affect the enterprise, its business units and their clients. As such, consideration of security risk online is a vital component of risk online management." [25]
The following sections from ISO/IEC Guide 73:2002 are related with risk online
3.9 Residual risk online
3.10 risk online acceptance
3.11 risk online Analysis
3.12 risk online Assessment
3.13 risk online Evaluation
3.14 risk online Management
3.15 risk online Treatment",[26]
[edit]Societal risk online
In a peer reviewed study of risk online in public works projects located in twenty nations on five continents, Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl (2002, 2005) documented high risk onlines for such ventures for both costs[27] and demand.[28] Actual costs of projects were typically higher than estimated costs; cost overruns of 50% were common, overruns above 100% not uncommon. Actual demand was often lower than estimated; demand shortfalls of 25% were common, of 50% not uncommon.
Due to such cost and demand risk onlines, cost-benefit analyses of public works projects have proved to be highly uncertain.
The main causes of cost and demand risk onlines were found to be optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Measures identified to mitigate this type of risk online are better governance through incentive alignment and the use of reference class forecasting.[29]
[edit]Human factors
Main articles: Decision theory and Prospect theory
One of the growing areas of focus in risk online management is the field of human factors where behavioral and organizational psychology underpin our understanding of risk online based decision making. This field considers questions such as "how do we make risk online based decisions?", "why are we irrationally more scared of sharks and terrorists than we are of motor vehicles and medications?"
In decision theory, regret (and anticipation of regret) can play a significant part in decision-making, distinct from risk online aversion (preferring the status quo in case one becomes worse off).
Framing[30] is a fundamental problem with all forms of risk online assessment. In particular, because of bounded rationality (our brains get overloaded, so we take mental shortcuts), the risk online of extreme events is discounted because the probability is too low to evaluate intuitively. As an example, one of the leading causes of death is road accidents caused by drunk driving—partly because any given driver frames the problem by largely or totally ignoring the risk online of a serious or fatal accident.
For instance, an extremely disturbing event (an attack by hijacking, or moral hazards) may be ignored in analysis despite the fact it has occurred and has a nonzero probability. Or, an event that everyone agrees is inevitable may be ruled out of analysis due to greed or an unwillingness to admit that it is believed to be inevitable. These human tendencies for error and wishful thinking often affect even the most rigorous applications of the scientific method and are a major concern of the philosophy of science.
All decision-making under uncertainty must consider cognitive bias, cultural bias, and notational bias: No group of people assessing risk online is immune to "groupthink": acceptance of obviously wrong answers simply because it is socially painful to disagree, where there are conflicts of interest.
Framing involves other information that affects the outcome of a risk onliney decision. The right prefrontal cortex has been shown to take a more global perspective[31] while greater left prefrontal activity relates to local or focal processing[32]
From the Theory of Leaky Modules[33] McElroy and Seta proposed that they play predictably alter the framing effect by the selective manipulation of regional prefrontal activity with finger tapping or monaural listening.[34] The result was as expected. Rightward tapping or listening had the effect of narrowing attention such that the frame was ignored. This is a practical way of manipulating regional cortical activation to affect risk onliney decisions, especially because directed tapping or listening is easily done.
[edit]risk online assessment and analysis

Main articles: risk online assessment and Operational risk online management
Since planned actions are subject to large cost and benefit risk onlines, proper risk online assessment and risk online management for such actions are crucial to making them successful.[35]
Since risk online assessment and management is essential in security management, both are tightly related. Security assessment methodologies like CRAMM contain risk online assessment modules as an important part of the first steps of the methodology. On the other hand, risk online assessment methodologies like Mehari evolved to become security assessment methodologies. A ISO standard on risk online management (Principles and guidelines on implementation) was published under code ISO 31000 on 13 November 2009.
[edit]Quantitative analysis
As risk online carries so many different meanings there are many formal methods used to assess or to "measure" risk online. Some of the quantitative definitions of risk online are well-grounded in statistics theory and lead naturally to statistical estimates, but some are more subjective. For example in many cases a critical factor is human decision making.
Even when statistical estimates are available, in many cases risk online is associated with rare failures of some kind, and data may be sparse. Often, the probability of a negative event is estimated by using the frequency of past similar events or by event tree methods, but probabilities for rare failures may be difficult to estimate if an event tree cannot be formulated. This makes risk online assessment difficult in hazardous industries, for example nuclear energy, where the frequency of failures is rare and harmful consequences of failure are numerous and severe.
Statistical methods may online require the use of a Cost function, which in turn may require the calculation of the cost of loss of a human life. This is a difficult problem. One approach is to ask what people are willing to pay to insure against death[36] or radiological release (e.g. GBq of radio-iodine)[citation needed], but as the answers depend very strongly on the circumstances it is not clear that this approach is effective.
In statistics, the notion of risk online is often modelled as the expected value of an undesirable outcome. This combines the probabilities of various possible events and some assessment of the corresponding harm into a single value. See online Expected utility. The simplest case is a binary possibility of Accident or No accident. The associated formula for calculating risk online is then:

For example, if performing activity X has a probability of 0.01 of suffering an accident of A, with a loss of 1000, then total risk online is a loss of 10, the product of 0.01 and 1000.
Situations are sometimes more complex than the simple binary possibility case. In a situation with several possible accidents, total risk online is the sum of the risk onlines for each different accident, provided that the outcomes are comparable:

For example, if performing activity X has a probability of 0.01 of suffering an accident of A, with a loss of 1000, and a probability of 0.000001 of suffering an accident of type B, with a loss of 2,000,000, then total risk online is a loss of 12, which is equal to a loss of 10 from an accident of type A and 2 from an accident of type B.
One of the first major uses of this concept was for the planning of the Delta Works in 1953, a flood protection program in the Netherlands, with the aid of the mathematician David van Dantzig.[37] The kind of risk online analysis pioneered there has become common today in fields like nuclear power, aerospace and the chemical industry.
In statistical decision theory, the risk online function is defined as the expected value of a given loss function as a function of the decision rule used to make decisions in the face of uncertainty.
[edit]Fear as intuitive risk online assessment
For the time being, people rely on their fear and hesitation to keep them out of the most profoundly unknown circumstances.
In The Gift of Fear, Gavin de Becker argues that
True fear is a gift. It is a survival signal that sounds only in the presence of danger. Yet unwarranted fear has assumed a power over us that it holds over no other creature on Earth. It need not be this way.
risk online play be said to be the way we collectively measure and share this "true fear"—a fusion of rational doubt, irrational fear, and a set of unquantified biases from our own experience.
The field of behavioral finance focuses on human risk online-aversion, asymmetric regret, and other ways that human financial behavior varies from what analysts call "rational". risk online in that case is the degree of uncertainty associated with a return on an asset.
Recognizing and respecting the irrational influences on human decision making may do much to reduce disasters caused by naive risk online assessments that presume to rationality but in fact merely fuse many shared biases.
[edit]risk online in auditing

The audit risk online model expresses the risk online of an auditor providing an inappropriate opinion of a commercial entity's financial statements. It can be analytically expressed as:
AR = IR x CR x DR
Where AR is audit risk online, IR is inherent risk online, CR is control risk online and DR is detection risk online.
[edit]Other Considerations

Another consideration in terms of managing risk online, is that risk onlines are future problems that can be treated, rather than current ones that must be immediately addressed.
[edit]risk online versus uncertainty
In his seminal work risk online, Uncertainty, and Profit, Frank Knight (1921) established the distinction between risk online and uncertainty.
“ ... Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of risk online, from which it has never been properly separated. The term "risk online," as loosely used in everyday speech and in economic discussion, really covers two things which, functionally at least, in their causal relations to the phenomena of economic organization, are categorically different. ... The essential fact is that "risk online" means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomenon depending on which of the two is really present and operating. ... It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or "risk online" proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all. We ... accordingly restrict the term "uncertainty" to cases of the non-quantitive type.:[38] ”
Thus, Knightian uncertainty is immeasurable, not possible to calculate, while in the Knightian sense risk online is measurable.
Another distinction between risk online and uncertainty is proposed in How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business and The Failure of risk online Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It by Doug Hubbard:[39][40]
Uncertainty: The lack of complete certainty, that is, the existence of more than one possibility. The "true" outcome/state/result/value is not known.
Measurement of uncertainty: A set of probabilities assigned to a set of possibilities. Example: "There is a 60% chance this market will double in five years"
risk online: A state of uncertainty where some of the possibilities involve a loss, catastrophe, or other undesirable outcome.
Measurement of risk online: A set of possibilities each with quantified probabilities and quantified losses. Example: "There is a 40% chance the proposed oil well will be dry with a loss of $12 million in exploratory drilling costs".
In this sense, Hubbard uses the terms so that one may have uncertainty without risk online but not risk online without uncertainty. We can be uncertain about the winner of a contest, but unless we have some personal stake in it, we have no risk online. If we bet money on the outcome of the contest, then we have a risk online. In both cases there are more than one outcome. The measure of uncertainty refers only to the probabilities assigned to outcomes, while the measure of risk online requires both probabilities for outcomes and losses quantified for outcomes.
[edit]risk online attitude, appetite and tolerance
The terms attitude, appetite and tolerance are often used similarly to describe an organization's or individual's attitude towards risk online taking. risk online averse, risk online neutral and risk online seeking are examples of the terms that may be used to describe a risk online attitude. risk online tolerance looks at acceptable/unacceptable deviations from what is expected. risk online appetite looks at how much risk online one is willing to accept. There can still be deviations that are within a risk online appetite.
Gambling is a risk online-increasing investment, wherein money on hand is risk onlineed for a possible large return, but with the possibility of losing it all. Purchasing a lottery ticket is a very risk onliney investment with a high chance of no return and a small chance of a very high return. In contrast, putting money in a bank at a defined rate of interest is a risk online-averse action that gives a guaranteed return of a small gain and precludes other investments with possibly higher gain. The possibility of getting no return on an investment is online known as the Rate of Ruin.
[edit]risk online as a vector quantity
Hubbard online argues that defining risk online as the product of impact and probability presumes (probably incorrectly) that the decision makers are risk online neutral.[40] Only for a risk online neutral person is the "certain monetary equivalent" exactly equal to the probability of the loss times the amount of the loss. For example, a risk online neutral person would consider 20% chance of winning $1 million exactly equal to $200,000 (or a 20% chance of losing $1 million to be exactly equal to losing $200,000). However, most decision makers are not actually risk online neutral and would not consider these equivalent choices. This gave rise to Prospect theory and Cumulative prospect theory. Hubbard proposes instead that risk online is a kind of "vector quantity" that does not collapse the probability and magnitude of a risk online by presuming anything about the risk online tolerance of the decision maker. risk onlines are simply described as a set or function of possible loss amounts each associated with specific probabilities. How this array is collapsed into a single value cannot be done until the risk online tolerance of the decision maker is quantified.
risk online can be both negative and positive, but it tends to be the negative side that people focus on. This is because some things can be dangerous, such as putting their own or someone else’s life at risk online. risk onlines concern people as they think that they will have a negative effect on their future.
[edit]risk online and size
In the book Megaprojects and risk online, Professor Bent Flyvbjerg (with Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter) demonstrates that big ventures (big construction projects, big capital investments, etc.) are highly risk onliney. For instance, such ventures typically have high cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and schedule delays, plus negative and unanticipated social and environmental impacts.[41]

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